地震災害の統合的被害予測手法の開発に向けた検討

Abstract

本研究では，地震災害の統合的予測手法開発の端緒として，地震動推定，建物の損壊被害推定，ならびに火災延焼による焼失被害推定の各モデルの入出力条件を整理し，これらの一体的な運用手続きについて検討を加えた。また，本手続きに基づき，花折断層系を震源とする地震が発生した場合の京都市中心市街地が受ける被害の推定を行った。

A preliminary study for integrated loss estimation of earthquake disasters was conducted by applying existing models of spatial distribution of seismic motion, structural damage of buildings, and building-to-building fire spread, sequentially over the target urban area. The procedure was tested by estimating the loss brought to the city of Kyoto due to the earthquake originated from the shift of Hanaore fault. The results were displayed over a 3D map provided by Google Earth enabling comprehensive analysis of the estimation.