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Title: 全球気圧高度分布情報を用いた長期降水予測とその貯水池操作への利用性に関する基礎的検討
Other Titles: Fundamental Study on Long-term Precipitation Prediction Using Information on Global Pressure Height Distribution and Its Availability for Reservoir Operation
Authors: 野原, 大督  KAKEN_name
岡田, 知也  KAKEN_name
堀, 智晴  kyouindb  KAKEN_id
Author's alias: NOHARA, Daisuke
OKADA, Tomoya
HORI, Tomoharu
Keywords: 全球気圧高度分布
降水予測
貯水池操作
渇水
global pressure height distribution
precipitation prediction
reservoir operation
drought
Issue Date: 1-Jun-2010
Publisher: 京都大学防災研究所
Journal title: 京都大学防災研究所年報. B = Disaster Prevention Research Institute Annuals. B
Volume: 53
Issue: B
Start page: 707
End page: 714
Abstract: 本稿では,500hPa気圧高度分布を利用した二種類の流域降水量予測モデルを構築し,その精度比較を行った。また,予測モデルによって得られた二種類の降水予測状況を渇水被害の軽減を目的とした貯水池放流意思決定に反映させ,それぞれの予測情報が放流意思決定の効率化に寄与する程度を比較した。その結果,ブライアー・スコアによる降水予測精度比較では,二つの予測モデル間に精度の差異が認められたものの,放流意思決定の効率化への寄与の程度に関しては,渇水被害の軽減量に予測精度に見られたほどの差異は見られなかった。
Long-term reservoir operation scheme is proposed by use of pressure height distribution (PHD) with real-time data searching process in this study. Distribution of 500 hPa pressure height is utilized as global PHD, and considered in the long-term prediction of precipitation in the target basin for the coming three months. Two methods of precipitation prediction using PHD are introduced in this study. Long-term reservoir operation strategy which mainly focuses on drought management for water use are searched and optimized in real-time based on the current observed hydrological situation and predicted one in the future. Proposed operation schemes are applied to Sameura reservoir, and the difference of the operation results was analyzed.
URL: http://www.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/nenpo/nenpo.html
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2433/129359
Appears in Collections:No.53 B

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