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タイトル: Timing and propagule size of invasion determine its success by a time-varying threshold of demographic regime shift
著者: Yamamichi, Masato  kyouindb  KAKEN_id
Yoshida, Takehito
Sasaki, Akira
著者名の別形: 山道, 真人
キーワード: Allee effect
alternative stable states
antiphase cycles
bistability
eco-evolutionary dynamics
evolutionary cycles
fluctuating resource
invasibility
limit cycles
niche opportunity
propagule pressure
rapid evolution
発行日: Aug-2014
出版者: Ecological Society of America
誌名: Ecology
巻: 95
号: 8
開始ページ: 2303
終了ページ: 2315
抄録: Theory of invasion ecology indicates that the number of invading individuals (propagule size) and the timing of invasion are important for invasion success. Propagule size affects establishment success due to an Allee effect and the effect of demographic stochasticity, whereas the timing of invasion does so via niche opportunity produced by fluctuating predation pressure and resource abundance. We propose a synthesis of these two mechanisms by a time-varying dose–response curve where the dose is propagule size and the response is establishment probability. We show an example of the synthesis in a simple predator–prey model where successful invasion occurs as a demographic regime shift because of the bistability of the system. The two mechanisms are not independent, but simultaneously determine invasion success in our model. We found that positive growth rate of an invading species does not ensure its establishment, especially when its propagule size is small or when its growth rate is in a decreasing trend. We suggest the difficulty of understanding invasion process based on a dose–response curve of propagule size as no unique curve can be determined due to the effects of invasion timing (i.e., the threshold of demographic regime shift is time varied). The results of our model analysis also have an implication on the phase relationship between population cycles of predators and prey.
著作権等: © 2014 by the Ecological Society of America
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2433/192888
DOI(出版社版): 10.1890/13-1527.1
出現コレクション:学術雑誌掲載論文等

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