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タイトル: | Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability |
著者: | Tokinaga, Hiroki ![]() Xie, Shang-Ping Mukougawa, Hitoshi ![]() ![]() ![]() |
著者名の別形: | 時長, 宏樹 向川, 均 |
キーワード: | early 20th-century Arctic warming Pacific decadal variability Atlantic multidecadal variability ocean–atmosphere interaction climate variability |
発行日: | 13-Jun-2017 |
出版者: | National Academy of Sciences |
誌名: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
巻: | 114 |
号: | 24 |
開始ページ: | 6227 |
終了ページ: | 6232 |
抄録: | With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region. |
記述: | 20世紀前半の北極圏温暖化、遠く離れた海洋の温度上昇が影響 --現在の気候変化とは異なる北極圏温暖化メカニズムを発見--. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2017-05-30. |
著作権等: | This is the accepted version of the article, which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1615880114 この論文は出版社版でありません。引用の際には出版社版をご確認ご利用ください。 This is not the published version. Please cite only the published version. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2433/226514 |
DOI(出版社版): | 10.1073/pnas.1615880114 |
PubMed ID: | 28559341 |
関連リンク: | https://www.kyoto-u.ac.jp/ja/research-news/2017-05-31 |
出現コレクション: | 学術雑誌掲載論文等 |
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