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Title: Analysis of Potential for Critical Metal Resource Constraints in the International Energy Agency’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Energy Scenarios
Authors: Watari, Takuma
McLellan, Benjamin  kyouindb  KAKEN_id  orcid (unconfirmed)
Ogata, Seiichi
Tezuka, Tetsuo  kyouindb  KAKEN_id  orcid (unconfirmed)
Author's alias: 渡, 卓磨
尾方, 清一
手塚, 哲央
Keywords: critical minerals
resource constraints
low-carbon energy scenario
Issue Date: 12-Apr-2018
Publisher: MDPI AG
Journal title: Minerals
Volume: 8
Issue: 4
Thesis number: 156
Abstract: As environmental problems associated with energy systems become more serious, it is necessary to address them with consideration of their interconnections—for example, the energy-mineral nexus. Specifically, it is unclear whether long-term energy scenarios assuming the expansion of low carbon energy technology are sustainable in terms of resource constraints. However, there are few studies that comprehensively analyze the possibility of resource constraints in the process of introducing low carbon energy technology from a long-term perspective. Hence, to provide guidelines for technological development and policy-making toward realizing the low carbon society, this paper undertakes the following: (1) Estimation of the impact of the expansion of low carbon energy technology on future metal demand based, on the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s scenarios; (2) estimation of the potential effects of low carbon energy technology recycling on the future supply-demand balance; (3) identification of critical metals that require priority measures. Results indicated that the introduction of solar power and next-generation vehicles may be hindered by resource depletion. Among the metals examined, indium, tellurium, silver, lithium, nickel and platinum were identified as critical metals that require specific measures. As recycling can reduce primary demand by 20%~70% for low carbon energy technology, countermeasures including recycling need to be considered.
Rights: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
DOI(Published Version): 10.3390/min8040156
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