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タイトル: | Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
著者: | Troeger, Christopher Blacker, Brigette Khalil, Ibrahim A Rao, Puja C Cao, Jackie Zimsen, Stephanie R M Albertson, Samuel B Deshpande, Aniruddha Farag, Tamer Abebe, Zegeye Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O Adhikari, Tara Ballav Akibu, Mohammed Al Lami, Faris Hasan Al-Eyadhy, Ayman Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Amare, Azmeraw T Amoako, Yaw Ampem Antonio, Carl Abelardo T Aremu, Olatunde Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal Atey, Tesfay Mehari Attia, Engi Farouk Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur Ayele, Henok Tadesse Ayuk, Tambe Betrand Balakrishnan, Kalpana Barac, Aleksandra Bassat, Quique Behzadifar, Masoud Behzadifar, Meysam Bhaumik, Soumyadeep Bhutta, Zulfiqar A Bijani, Ali Brauer, Michael Brown, Alexandria Camargos, Paulo A M Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A Colombara, Danny Conti, Sara Dadi, Abel Fekadu Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Do, Huyen Phuc Dubljanin, Eleonora Edessa, Dumessa Elkout, Hajer Endries, Aman Yesuf Fijabi, Daniel Obadare Foreman, Kyle J Forouzanfar, Mohammad H Fullman, Nancy Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L Gessner, Bradford D Gething, Peter W Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Tarun Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa Hassen, Hamid Yimam Hedayati, Mohammad T Heidari, Mohsen Hibstu, Desalegn Tsegaw Horita, Nobuyuki Ilesanmi, Olayinka S Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B Jamal, Amr A Kahsay, Amaha Kasaeian, Amir Kassa, Dessalegn Haile Khader, Yousef Saleh Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khang, Young-Ho Kim, Yun Jin Kissoon, Niranjan Knibbs, Luke D Kochhar, Sonali Koul, Parvaiz A Kumar, G Anil Lodha, Rakesh Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan Malta, Deborah Carvalho Mathew, Joseph L Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammed, Mohammed A Momeniha, Fatemeh Murthy, Srinivas Nguyen, Cuong Tat Nielsen, Katie R Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini Nirayo, Yirga Legesse Oren, Eyal Ortiz, Justin R PA, Mahesh Postma, Maarten J Qorbani, Mostafa Quansah, Reginald Rai, Rajesh Kumar Rana, Saleem M Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal Ray, Sarah E Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh Ruhago, George Mugambage Safiri, Saeid Salomon, Joshua A Sartorius, Benn Savic, Miloje Sawhney, Monika She, Jun Sheikh, Aziz Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay Shigematsu, Mika Singh, Jasvinder A Somayaji, Ranjani Stanaway, Jeffrey D Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale Taffere, Getachew Redae Temsah, Mohamad-Hani Thompson, Matthew J Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan Topor-Madry, Roman Tran, Bach Xuan Tran, Tung Thanh Tuem, Kald Beshir Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna Vollset, Stein Emil Walson, Judd L Weldegebreal, Fitsum Werdecker, Andrea West, T Eoin Yonemoto, Naohiro Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed Zhou, Lei Zodpey, Sanjay Vos, Theo Naghavi, Mohsen Lim, Stephen S Mokdad, Ali H Murray, Christopher J L Hay, Simon I Reiner, Robert C |
著者名の別形: | 米本, 直裕 |
発行日: | Nov-2018 |
出版者: | Elsevier BV |
誌名: | The Lancet Infectious Diseases |
巻: | 18 |
号: | 11 |
開始ページ: | 1191 |
終了ページ: | 1210 |
抄録: | [Background] Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages. [Methods] We used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus. We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location. We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years. We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000–16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016. [Findings] In 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475–720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749–1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2 145 584–2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1 189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445–1 770 660). Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61·4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45·7–69·6). Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden. [Interpretation] Our findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults. By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could have the greatest effect, funders, policy makers, and programme implementers can more effectively reduce lower respiratory infections among the world's most susceptible populations. [Findings] Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
著作権等: | © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2433/235006 |
DOI(出版社版): | 10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30310-4 |
PubMed ID: | 30243584 |
出現コレクション: | 学術雑誌掲載論文等 |
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