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Title: Study of the impacts of upstream natural gas market reform in China on infrastructure deployment and social welfare using an SVM-based rolling horizon stochastic game analysis
Authors: Li, Yan
Wang, Ge
Mclellan, Benjamin  kyouindb  KAKEN_id
Chen, Si-Yuan
Zhang, Qi
Keywords: LNG market reform
Market structure
Third-party access
Rolling horizon stochastic method
Game theory
Issue Date: Nov-2018
Publisher: Springer Nature
Journal title: Petroleum Science
Volume: 15
Issue: 4
Start page: 898
End page: 911
Abstract: Natural gas is expected to play a much more important role in China in future decades, and market reform is crucial for its rapid market penetration. At present, the main gas fields, pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure are mainly monopolized by large state-owned companies, and one of the important market reform policies is to open up LNG import rights to smaller private companies and traders. Therefore, in the present study, a game theoretical model is proposed to analyze and compare the impacts of different market structures on infrastructure deployment and social welfare. Moreover, a support vector machine-based rolling horizon stochastic method is adopted in the model to simulate real LNG price fluctuations. Four market reform scenarios are proposed considering different policies such as business separation, third-party access (TPA) and their combinations. The results indicate that, with third-party access (TPA) entrance into the LNG market, the construction of LNG infrastructure will be promoted and more gas will be provided at lower prices, and thus the total social welfare will be improved greatly.
Rights: © The Author(s) 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2433/235357
DOI(Published Version): 10.1007/s12182-018-0238-x
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