低緯度におけるハリケーン強化過程のダウンスケール実験

Abstract

The influence of the Coriolis force influence on the intensity of Hurricane PALI that was generated at 4.4°N on 18Z 7 January 2016 was examined. Ensemble downscale experiments were conducted using the nonhydrostatic meso-scale numerical model, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), with horizontal resolution of 10 km from the initial states derived from 11 ensemble members of NOAA's 2nd-generation global ensemble reforecast dataset. Sensitivity to the intensity is identified by initial time from 00Z 1 January to 00Z 10 every 24 hours. All disturbances with different develop to the intensity of Tropical cyclone (17.0 ms-1). By changing initial time, the score of root mean square error of maximum wind speed has changed and 00Z 3 (about 5days before PALI genesis) is including the best score member. In the best member experiment, an analysis was carried out by selecting the stagnation period and the development period. Super-gradient wind, which means that tangential wind speed is larger than gradient wind speed, during the development period is larger than during the stagnation period.