Assessing Spatial Flood Risk from Multiple Flood Sources in a Small River Basin: A Method Based on Multivariate Design Rainfall

Abstract

A key issue in assessing the spatial distribution of flood risk is considering risk information derived from multiple flood sources (river flooding, drainage inundation, etc.) that may affect the risk assessment area. This study proposes a method for assessing spatial flood risk that includes flooding and inundation in small-basin areas through multivariate design rainfall. The concept of critical rainfall duration, determined by the time of concentration of flooding, is used to represent the characteristics of flooding from different sources. A copula method is adopted to capture the correlation of rainfall amounts in different critical rainfall durations to reflect the correlation of potential flooding from multiple flood sources. Rainfalls for different return periods are designed based on the copula multivariate analysis. Using the design rainfalls as input, flood risk is assessed following the rainfall–runoff–inundation–loss estimation procedure. A case study of the Otsu River Basin, Osaka Prefecture, Japan, was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and advantages of this method. Compared to conventional rainfall design, this method considers the response characteristics of multiple flood sources, and solves the problem of flood risk assessment from multiple flood sources. It can be applied to generate a precise flood risk assessment to support integrated flood risk management.