ダウンロード数: 80
このアイテムのファイル:
ファイル | 記述 | サイズ | フォーマット | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2019GL086233.pdf | 17.47 MB | Adobe PDF | 見る/開く |
タイトル: | Impact of Satellite Observations on Forecasting Sudden Stratospheric Warmings |
著者: | Noguchi, S. Kuroda, Y. Mukougawa, H. Mizuta, R. Kobayashi, C. |
著者名の別形: | 向川, 均 |
キーワード: | reanalysis predictability satellite data assimilation stratosphere‐troposphere coupling sudden stratospheric warming sub‐seasonal to seasonal prediction |
発行日: | 16-Mar-2020 |
出版者: | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
誌名: | Geophysical Research Letters |
巻: | 47 |
号: | 5 |
論文番号: | e2019GL086233 |
抄録: | The observational impacts of satellite data assimilation on extended‐range forecasts of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are investigated by conducting ensemble forecast experiments. We use two Japanese novel reanalysis products: the Japanese 55‐year reanalysis (JRA‐55) and its subset that assimilates conventional observations only (JRA‐55C). A comparative examination on the reproducibility for SSWs between the two ensemble forecasts reveals that the impact of satellite observations is significant for forecasts starting 5 days before the SSW onset, with 20% less accuracy in the JRA‐55C forecasts. Moreover, some of forecasts of vortex‐splitting SSWs show a sudden appearance of deep difference, which lasts over a few months in the lower stratosphere and significantly affects the surface climate. These results highlight an important role of mesospheric and upper stratospheric circulations on the onset and development of SSWs. |
著作権等: | ©2020. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2433/253869 |
DOI(出版社版): | 10.1029/2019GL086233 |
出現コレクション: | 学術雑誌掲載論文等 |
このリポジトリに保管されているアイテムはすべて著作権により保護されています。