Probability Analysis of Submarine Slope Stability with Consideration of the Spatial Variability of Sediment Strength

Abstract

With the development of ocean engineering, the stability evaluation of submarine slopes has become more essential for the problems relating the stability of submarine foundations and the safety of offshore structures. The properties of marine sediments vary spatially in nature, and because of the depositional processes and the effective overburden pressure, there is an increasing trend with depth for the undrained shear strength of marine clay. To consider the spatial variability of soil strength in the stability evaluation of submarine slopes, the random field method and the limit equilibrium method are integrated in our study. A novel response surface method is proposed based on the Gaussian process regression to reduce the number of calls for direct slope stability analysis in the Monte Carlo simulations. Then illustrative examples of an infinite clay slope model and a two-dimensional submarine slope model are analyzed, taking the spatial variability of soil strength into consideration. The computational burden of the analysis using the surrogate model is significantly reduced making the prediction of submarine landslides more efficient.