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タイトル: | Projection of impacts of climate change on windthrows and evaluation of potential adaptation measures in forest management: A case study from empirical modelling of windthrows in Hokkaido, Japan, by Typhoon Songda (2004) |
著者: | Takano, Kohei T. Nakagawa, Kosuke Aiba, Masahiro Oguro, Michio Morimoto, Junko Furukawa, Yasuto Mishima, Yoshio Ogawa, Kenta Ito, Rui Takemi, Tetsuya https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7596-2373 (unconfirmed) |
著者名の別形: | 伊東, 瑠衣 竹見, 哲也 |
キーワード: | windthrow risk typhoon hazards maximum wind speed forest vulnerability random forest modelling machine learning |
発行日: | 2016 |
出版者: | Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources |
誌名: | Hydrological Research Letters |
巻: | 10 |
号: | 4 |
開始ページ: | 132 |
終了ページ: | 138 |
抄録: | A windthrow refers to the uprooting and overthrowing of trees by the wind. Typhoons are a major cause of windthrows in Japan and are predicted to intensify under global warming. This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change on windthrows and evaluate possible adaptation measures for sustainable forest management. We incorporated Typhoon Songda (2004) simulation experiments under current and pseudo-global warming (2075–2099, RCP 8.5 scenario) conditions with windthrow modelling in four natural and four artificial (Abies sachalinensis, Pinaceae) forests of Hokkaido. Unexpectedly, pseudo-global warming conditions decreased windthrow probabilities compared with current conditions for both forest types, presumably because wind speeds of the simulated typhoon weakened in Japan’s high-latitude regions. Our results indicate that reconversion of artificial forests into natural forests largely decreased windthrow probability, providing a potential adaptation measure for improved forest management. To fully understand the range of climate-change effects on windthrow in Japan, future studies should use different climate scenarios and data from other typhoons, geographical regions, and forest types. |
著作権等: | © 2016 Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources. This PDF is deposited under the publisher's permission. The use of this PDF is limited to the scope of copyright. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2433/264482 |
DOI(出版社版): | 10.3178/hrl.10.132 |
出現コレクション: | 学術雑誌掲載論文等 |
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