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Title: Probabilistic risk assessment of solar particle events considering the cost of countermeasures to reduce the aviation radiation dose
Authors: Fujita, Moe
Sato, Tatsuhiko
Saito, Susumu
Yamashiki, Yosuke
Author's alias: 藤田, 萌
佐藤, 達彦
斎藤, 享
山敷, 庸亮
Keywords: Risk factors
Solar physics
Issue Date: 2021
Publisher: Springer Nature
Journal title: Scientific Reports
Volume: 11
Thesis number: 17091
Abstract: Cosmic-ray exposure to flight crews and passengers, which is called aviation radiation exposure, is an important topic in radiological protection, particularly for solar energetic particles (SEP). We therefore assessed the risks associated with the countermeasure costs to reduce SEP doses and dose rates for eight flight routes during five ground level enhancements (GLE). A four-dimensional dose-rate database developed by the Warning System for Aviation Exposure to Solar Energetic Particles, WASAVIES, was employed in the SEP dose evaluation. As for the cost estimation, we considered two countermeasures; one is the cancellation of the flight, and the other is the reduction of flight altitudes. Then, we estimated the annual occurrence frequency of significant GLE events that would bring the maximum flight route dose and dose rate over 1.0 mSv and 80 μSv/h, respectively, based on past records of GLE as well as historically large events observed by the cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in tree rings and ice cores. Our calculations suggest that GLE events of a magnitude sufficient to exceed the above dose and dose rate thresholds, requiring a change in flight conditions, occur once every 47 and 17 years, respectively, and their conservatively-estimated annual risks associated with the countermeasure costs are up to around 1.5 thousand USD in the cases of daily-operated long-distance flights.
Description: 太陽フレアによる被ばくの脅威から航空機搭乗者を「合理的」に護る --経済的損失リスクの定量化により最適な航空機運用指針の策定が可能に--. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2021-09-03.
Rights: © The Author(s) 2021
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.
DOI(Published Version): 10.1038/s41598-021-95235-9
PubMed ID: 34475423
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