複数温暖化シナリオに基づく線状対流系の擬似温暖化実験と影響メカニズムに関する解析

Abstract

A high-resolution pseudo global warming experiments were conducted for line-shaped convective system, 2012 Kameoka event and 2014 Hiroshima event, under the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. For 2012 Kameoka event, line-shaped rain band was gradually intensified while for 2014 Hiroshima event line-shaped rain band gradually disappeared as the warming scenario became higher. This was due to the fact that the weak rainfall area upstream of 2014 Hiroshima event was enhanced antecedently by the warming effect, and disrupted the environmental field for the occurrence of the line-shaped convection system as expressed such as CAPE and bulk Richardson number. It is indicated that line-shaped convective system is generated when thermodynamical and dynamical various factors are well balanced, and the effects of ambient disturbances should be taken in to account when we apply pseudo global warming experiment.