ダウンロード数: 48
このアイテムのファイル:
ファイル | 記述 | サイズ | フォーマット | |
---|---|---|---|---|
21664250.2021.1997506.pdf | 9.66 MB | Adobe PDF | 見る/開く |
タイトル: | Uncertainty of storm surge forecast using integrated atmospheric and storm surge model: a case study on Typhoon Haishen 2020 |
著者: | Toyoda, Masaya Fukui, Nobuki Miyashita, Takuya https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3196-2726 (unconfirmed) Shimura, Tomoya Mori, Nobuhito https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9082-3235 (unconfirmed) |
著者名の別形: | 豊田, 将也 福井, 信気 宮下, 卓也 志村, 智也 森, 信人 |
キーワード: | Storm surge forecast typhoon track maximum storm surge height peak time of storm surge |
発行日: | 2022 |
出版者: | Taylor & Francis |
誌名: | Coastal Engineering Journal |
巻: | 64 |
号: | 1 |
開始ページ: | 135 |
終了ページ: | 150 |
抄録: | Hindcast experiments and pseudo-forecast experiments considering Typhoon Haishen (2020) were conducted using an atmospheric (WRF)-storm surge (GeoClaw) coupled model and a storm surge model with a parametric typhoon model. A series of simulations of the coupled model were used to quantify the error sources of the typhoon track and intensity in the forecast errors of storm surges. The results revealed that the typhoon track forecast had a larger error source for the storm surge forecast for the maximum surge height than the typhoon intensity. Furthermore, the parametric Holland typhoon model used in practice has an overestimation trend compared to the coupled model, and the parametric Holland typhoon model using WRF output was able to forecast the storm surge height near the typhoon (western Kyushu area) and its peak occurrence time accurately. However, the forecast accuracy tended to decrease as the distance from the typhoon to the target location increased. The pseudo-ensemble simulation of the storm surge forecast using forecast error information was conducted considering the uncertainty of the typhoon track forecast. The 20 ensemble forecast simulations revealed that the perturbed typhoon track simulation can increase the possibility of capturing the peak time of the storm surge. |
著作権等: | © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License, which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2433/274470 |
DOI(出版社版): | 10.1080/21664250.2021.1997506 |
出現コレクション: | 学術雑誌掲載論文等 |
このアイテムは次のライセンスが設定されています: クリエイティブ・コモンズ・ライセンス