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Title: Uncertainty of storm surge forecast using integrated atmospheric and storm surge model: a case study on Typhoon Haishen 2020
Authors: Toyoda, Masaya
Fukui, Nobuki
Miyashita, Takuya
Shimura, Tomoya
Mori, Nobuhito
Author's alias: 豊田, 将也
福井, 信気
宮下, 卓也
志村, 智也
森, 信人
Keywords: Storm surge forecast
typhoon track
maximum storm surge height
peak time of storm surge
Issue Date: 2022
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Journal title: Coastal Engineering Journal
Volume: 64
Issue: 1
Start page: 135
End page: 150
Abstract: Hindcast experiments and pseudo-forecast experiments considering Typhoon Haishen (2020) were conducted using an atmospheric (WRF)-storm surge (GeoClaw) coupled model and a storm surge model with a parametric typhoon model. A series of simulations of the coupled model were used to quantify the error sources of the typhoon track and intensity in the forecast errors of storm surges. The results revealed that the typhoon track forecast had a larger error source for the storm surge forecast for the maximum surge height than the typhoon intensity. Furthermore, the parametric Holland typhoon model used in practice has an overestimation trend compared to the coupled model, and the parametric Holland typhoon model using WRF output was able to forecast the storm surge height near the typhoon (western Kyushu area) and its peak occurrence time accurately. However, the forecast accuracy tended to decrease as the distance from the typhoon to the target location increased. The pseudo-ensemble simulation of the storm surge forecast using forecast error information was conducted considering the uncertainty of the typhoon track forecast. The 20 ensemble forecast simulations revealed that the perturbed typhoon track simulation can increase the possibility of capturing the peak time of the storm surge.
Rights: © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License, which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2433/274470
DOI(Published Version): 10.1080/21664250.2021.1997506
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