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Title: Predictive simulation of concurrent debris flows: How slope failure locations affect predicted damage
Authors: Yamanoi, Kazuki
Oishi, Satoru
Kawaike, Kenji
Nakagawa, Hajime
Author's alias: 山野井, 一輝
川池, 健司
中川, 一
Keywords: debris flow
flash flood
uncertainty analysis
Issue Date: Jun-2022
Publisher: Wiley
Journal title: Journal of Flood Risk Management
Volume: 15
Issue: 2
Thesis number: e12776
Abstract: Predictive simulation of concurrent debris flows using only pre-disaster information has been difficult, partly because of problems faced in predicting debris-flow initiation locations (i.e., slope failure). However, because catchment topography has convergent characteristics with all channels in it joining each other as they flow downstream, damage to downstream areas could be predicted using relatively inaccurate initiation points. Based on this hypothesis, this study uses debris-flow initiation points generated randomly with statistical slope failure prediction and performs a many-case simulation across numerous initiation points to quantify the effect of slope-failure locations in terms of deviations in the predicted water level and topographic change. This paper presents the results of 2D simulations based on a conventional debris-flow model that was run on a supercomputer to realise simulations of many cases. The obtained relative standard deviation was found to decrease as the debris flow and sediment-laden flood approached the downstream area, indicating that the predictability of the inundation and topographic change can be decided from the terrain characteristics.
Rights: © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Flood Risk Management published by Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
DOI(Published Version): 10.1111/jfr3.12776
Appears in Collections:Journal Articles

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