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タイトル: | Projecting a second wave of COVID-19 in Japan with variable interventions in high-risk settings |
著者: | Jung, Sung-mok Endo, Akira Kinoshita, Ryo Nishiura, Hiroshi https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0941-8537 (unconfirmed) |
著者名の別形: | ジョン, スンモク 遠藤, 彰 木下, 諒 西浦, 博 |
キーワード: | countermeasure next-generation matrix Japan projection exit strategy COVID-19 |
発行日: | Mar-2021 |
出版者: | The Royal Society |
誌名: | Royal Society Open Science |
巻: | 8 |
号: | 3 |
論文番号: | 202169 |
抄録: | An initial set of interventions, including the closure of host and hostess clubs and voluntary limitation of non-household contact, probably greatly contributed to reducing the disease incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan, but this approach must eventually be replaced by a more sustainable strategy. To characterize such a possible exit strategy from the restrictive guidelines, we quantified the next-generation matrix, accounting for high- and low-risk transmission settings. This matrix was used to project the future incidence in Tokyo and Osaka after the state of emergency is lifted, presenting multiple ‘post-emergency’ scenarios with different levels of restriction. The effective reproduction numbers (R) for the increasing phase, the transition phase and the state-of-emergency phase in the first wave of the disease were estimated as 1.78 (95% credible interval (CrI): 1.73–1.82), 0.74 (95% CrI: 0.71–0.78) and 0.63 (95% CrI: 0.61–0.65), respectively, in Tokyo and as 1.58 (95% CrI: 1.51–1.64), 1.20 (95% CrI: 1.15–1.25) and 0.48 (95% CrI: 0.44–0.51), respectively, in Osaka. Projections showed that a 50% decrease in the high-risk transmission is required to keep R less than 1 in both locations—a level necessary to maintain control of the epidemic and minimize the risk of resurgence. |
著作権等: | © 2021 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2433/277750 |
DOI(出版社版): | 10.1098/rsos.202169 |
PubMed ID: | 34035940 |
出現コレクション: | 学術雑誌掲載論文等 |
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