XYtracker: a new approach to estimate fault rupture extent in real time for large earthquakes

Abstract

We present a methodology for estimating fault geometry and utilizing the distance to the fault for the shaking estimation to improve the accuracy of real-time shaking estimates for large earthquakes. Most of the earthquake early warning system currently estimates the seismic intensity with the ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE) as a function of the hypocenter distance. However, using the fault distance computed from a finite source model can improve the accuracy of the shaking intensity estimation for large earthquakes. This study proposes a novel methodology, XYtracker, to estimate the surface projection of the fault extent and real-time seismic intensity. For large earthquakes, high-frequency ground motions tend to saturate over the magnitude range and strongly correlate with fault distance. As a result, this work can achieve the fault extent using seismic intensity and GMPE. We considered three types of fault models: point-source, line-source, and rectangle-source model. We found the most probable model parameters for each model by minimizing the residual sum of squares between the observed and estimated seismic intensities. The Akaike Information Criterion selected the most probable model among them. The strong motion data set of the 2008 Wenchuan, 2011 Tohoku, and 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes was used to test our methodology. The new method for estimating the fault geometry can obtain the ongoing rupture length and direction using the strong motion data. The model selection scheme with the Akaike Information Criterion selected the finite-source model to explain the shaking distribution. Results revealed that this new approach performed well in estimating the fault dimension. The method can promote the accuracy of the seismic intensity estimation for future large earthquakes, including the subduction earthquakes.