A Study on the Long-term Spatio-Temporal Changes of Shrinking Cities in China

Abstract

Urban shrinkage has become a global phenomenon, appearing not only in developed countries but also in China, which is undergoing rapid urbanization. Although numerous studies have investigated the distribution of shrinking cities, most of them analyzed from the population dimension. It is necessary to consider the economic dimension and long-term studies. This study takes all prefecture-level cities in mainland China as the research subject. It addresses three questions: 1) How did the spatio-temporal distribution of shrinking cities change between 2000 and 2020, from the perspectives of demography and economy? 2) What are the types of shrinking cities and their distribution, according to the shrinking dimensions and shrinking period? 3) How does the distribution of shrinking cities vary across different urban contexts, such as city size and urban resources? The results show that more than half of Chinese cities are experiencing permanent resident loss. And population shrinkage is observed before the economic decline. Among shrinking cities, the largest proportion shows shrinkage in the single dimension of the population. Additionally, the number of cities with both shrinkage in population and economy increased significantly after 2015, accounting for 19.7% of all shrinking cities. Moreover, 44.7% of shrinking cities are suffering continuous shrinkage. Furthermore, the proportion of shrinking cities is higher in small and medium-sized cities and resource-based cities. This study describes the evolution of shrinking cities in China and enriches the discussion on urban shrinkage worldwide. The findings can remind urban policymakers and planners of more attention on shrinking cities and planning strategies to cope with urban shrinkage.