北西太平洋における台風の中心気圧推定の改善に向けた木場の関係式の再検討

Abstract

Currently, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo applies the satellite-based Dvorak technique using the relationship developed by Koba et al. (1990) for one of the important sources of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity analysis. To improve TC intensity analysis, we revisited Koba's relationship used for estimating the minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) considering case selection, aircraft data treatment, current intensity (CI) numbers, and additional explanatory variables. The root mean squared difference (RMSD) of the MSLP between the aircraft data and the concurrent estimates based on the original formula of Koba et al. (1990) is approximately 13.0 hPa. The RMSD reduced by 28% to 9.3 hPa in the revised regression model that used CI numbers analyzed through modern methods and additional explanatory parameters (development rate, size, latitude, and environmental pressure) with careful treatment of the aircraft data. The signs of the coefficients in the proposed model suggest that the actual MSLP change lags the change in the corresponding CI number. The large TC at high latitudes with lower environmental pressure has a low MSLP for a given CI number. Cross-validation results supported the superiority of the proposed model. The current approach is simple but substantially improves the quality of the TC intensity analysis, leading to improved TC forecasts through TC bogus, wave models, storm surge models, and forecast verification.