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Title: 地球規模気象情報を用いた渇水時貯水池操作のための降水予測手法に関する研究
Other Titles: Precipitation Prediction Method Using Global Meteorological Information for Application to Long-term Reservoir Operation
Authors: 野原, 大督  kyouindb  KAKEN_id
岡田, 知也  KAKEN_name
堀, 智晴  kyouindb  KAKEN_id
Author's alias: NOHARA, Daisuke
OKADA, Tomoya
HORI, Tomoharu
Keywords: 長期降水予測
地球規模気象情報
パターン分類
AIC
貯水池操作
long-term precipitation prediction
Global meteorological information
Pattern classification
AIC
Reservoir operation
Issue Date: 1-Jun-2008
Publisher: 京都大学防災研究所
Journal title: 京都大学防災研究所年報. B = Disaster Prevention Research Institute Annuals. B
Volume: 51
Issue: B
Start page: 749
End page: 758
Abstract: 昨今の観測技術の発達や計算機資源の向上に伴い,世界各国にわたる様々な気象・水文情報網が整備されてきている。一方,水資源管理では,管理単位である河川流域内での水文情報と当該流域での過去の統計的情報を元に管理が行われており,将来の状態の定量的な予測に基づく最適な操作には至っていない。特に,渇水調節を対象とするような長期の予測については,予測精度は低く管理上考慮されていないのが実情である。このような背景から,本論では,渇水時貯水池操作を支援するため,地球規模で得られる広域的な気象・水文情報を活用した長期降水予測手法を提案する。
Various kinds of meteorological information that cover all over the world have been developed with advancement of observational techniques and computer resources in recent years. Information and statistics only in a river basin, however, is taken into account in actual water resources management; therefore, it does not get to optimal management based on the quantitative prediction of basin conditions in the future. Long-term prediction which is crucial especially for drought control is not taken into consideration in water resources management, because of the limitation of prediction accuracy. To overcome the situation where long-term prediction is not so applicable to reservoir operation, a long-term precipitation prediction model for reservoir operation that takes advantage of global information is proposed.
URL: http://www.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/nenpo/nenpo.html
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2433/73360
Appears in Collections:No.51 B

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