積雲モデルを用いた梅雨前線帯降雨に対する地形の影響の評価

Abstract

豪雨の短時間予測を目的として梅雨前線帯の豪雨の生起・分布に与える地形と大気状態の影響を調査するために, 詳細な雲の微物理過程に注目した数値計算による考察を行った.具体的には九頭竜川流域を対象として大気・水文観測で得られた大気のプロファイル, 地上降雨と実際の地形を数値モデルに初期値, 検証値として導入し, 地形や大気プロファイルを仮想的に修正した場合と比較し, その原因を雲物理過程に注目して考察することにより, それらの要因が降雨に与える影響を考察する.

The effect of the real topography and observed atmospheric profile on generation and distribution of severe rainfall along bain front has been studied numerically using a cloud model.The model represents the cloud microphysical processes explicitly.The detail of this study is divided into three phase.First, atmospheric and hydrological conditions in severe rainfall at the Kuzuryu river basin were observed and install them into the model as initial conditions.The topography of the basin was also installed.Second, calculate the cloud situation and rainfall condition using the model and the initial conditions.Third, the effect of initial conditions on cloud microphysical processes was investigated.Then, the effect of atmospheric and topological conditions on generation and distribution of severe rainfall was considered.