地域防災計画に基づく災害対応シミュレーションモデル

Abstract

地域防災計画で規定される防災社会システムの評価と問題点の抽出を行うため、災害時の情報伝達過程に着目し、防災団体が地域防災計画に定められた行動を取る過程を計算機上でシミュレートするモデルを開発した。また、地域防災計画の特性を計る定量的指標として情報シンク率を定義し、京都府地域防災計画を例に洪水時情報伝達シミュレーションを行い、災害シナリオ別にその値を比較評価した。

The aim of this study is to develop an estimation model of emergency safety systems focusing on the information interchange during a flood disaster. The governmental agencies are modeled as an object which is activated by disaster infonnation and send new information based on its task to other ones. The task of each agency is expressed in a rule format based on provisions of the emergency safety plan. The natural systen and the local communities are modeled as an object which have scenarios of disasters. Then the communication network among the public agencies under the flood situation is simulated to analyze the performance of emergency safety systems. Simulation results are summarized in terms of several indices defined to express the flood disaster preparedness for example, total amount of information and sink ratio. The sink ratio is the index relating to the amount of information which does not cause any new actions when an agency receives the information.