流水制御過程を導入した実時間分布型流出予測手法の複数ダム流域への展開

Abstract

A real-time runoff prediction system based on the Kalman filter theory using a distributed runoff model incorporating dam reservoir operation is extended to apply a basin with multiple dam reservoirs. A reservoir operation modeled with a function of inflow, outflow and reservoir storage is represented by a linear function of state variables using the statistical linearization method, which is incorporated into an entire state update vector equation composed of river discharges, dam inflows, outflows and storages in a distributed hydrologic system. An application to the Kizu River basin with five dam reservoirs successfully shows updating of state variables, which realizes fully distributed forecasting.