<特集論文>現代インド政治の展開--社会経済発展と政党制の変容過程

Abstract

本稿は連邦下院選挙のデータを元に、社会経済変動が選挙を介して政党政治に長期的にどのような影響を与えたか検討した論考である。「識字率」や「農業生産性」などの上昇が投票率の上昇という形で時代に応じて政治参加レベルを押し上げる効果があったこと、「物価上昇」や「コミュナル暴動の発生」は政権与党、特に長年与党の座にあった会議派に対するネガティブな評価に結びついてきたことなどが確認された。そして、そのような選挙民の変化こそが、連邦レベルの政党システムを1960 年代までの一党優位体制から1970 年代の転換期を経て、1980 年代末以降、競合的な多党制化の時代に向かわせる原動力となったと考えられる。力強い経済成長が続き政府の財政資源が比較的に豊富となった近年、このような多党制化と連合政権の常態化は、従来マージナルであった社会集団をも受益者としてとりこむ「包摂政治」の可能性を大きくしている。

This paper examines the long-term influences of socio-economic changes on the voting behavior of the Indian people, and consequently their impact on party politics, based on the data from the Lok Sabha election. It is observed first that an increase in “literacy” and “agricultural productivity” have the effect of pushing up the average turnout, which is one form of political participation, depending on the developmental stage of Indian society. Secondly, “price rises” and “occurrences of communal riots” have resulted in the negative evaluation of the ruling party, especially the Indian National Congress which has been in the central government for many years. These changes in voting behaviour are considered to have been basic elements behind the transformation of the party system from the so-called “one-party dominant system” up until the 1960s, through the transitional 1970s, to the competitive “multi-party system” which emerged at the end of the 1980s. The transition to the competitive "multi-party system", together with the acceleration of economic growth after the 2000s, seems to have made it possible for the ruling party to practice a "politics of inclusion", where hitherto marginalised social groups can be included as beneficiaries of economic growth.