水田農業構造に関する域内中長期予測のための計量モデル開発 : 京都府における水田農業地域を事例として

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to develop an econometric model to forecast paddy agricultural structure in mid and long-term. In general, when we develop such models, we need to take notice of the supply and the demand side as well as the interaction between them. However, in this study, we discuss only three areas in Kyoto prefecture. So, our model sets much value on reconstructing regional output. We also assume the parameters of our model for each region, make mid and longterm forecasts based on the model, and examine the effectiveness. The results of this analysis shows; (1)arge scale agricultural corporations (Type I) stay the same in production of rice and increase open culture production of vegetables, (2)subsistence crop farmers (Type III) decrease in number and get older, but keep the size of production, (3)middle scale private management (Type IV) keeps decreasing in number and (4)farmers who work less than 150 days per year are on the average growing older and their numbers are decreasing.