日系食料農業企業による海外進出およびTPP参加の日本農業への影響 : 多地域動学的CGEモデルの適用による接近

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) by Japanese food and agricultural firms and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) admission negotiation on the regional and dynamic aspects of the Japanese agricultural sector. The author has investigated the international effects of the FDI by Japanese Food Companies in the recent articles. This paper intends to strengthen the implication of the former analyses by converting the study scope from the static aspects of international markets to the dynamic aspects of regional economies in Japan. For this purpose, several scenarios, such as combination of tariff abolishment reflecting the possible TPP admission and enhancement in elasticity of substitution based on the increase of FDI in food and agricultural sector, are assumed. By applying the regional dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the following points are clarified. Food sectors are more negatively affected in terms of production and employments than agricultural sectors. In addition, effects that are more serious will be found in the Hokkaido region than other regions within Japan. Moreover, stimulated by the TPP negotiation process, it is also indicated that the boomerang effects through increased food exports to Japan by Japanese food companies operating in overseas countries might be increased again.