上海金融恐慌 (1934年-1935年) に關する一考察 : 國際・國内市場連關と市場・政府關係の視角から

Abstract

This paper investigates how changes in the international silver prices influenced the financial market in Shanghai, particulary focusing on the flow of funds and the process of credit creation and contraction. Corresponding to the rise and fall of the silver price, there were three dimensions in the Shanghai financial market from the late 1920s to November 1935. (1) The fall of silver price pulled down China's exchange rate, which increased investment, remittance, and trade. As a result, China saw net inflow of silver. The increased funds were invested in real estate, securities of foreign companies, and government bonds. (2) The rising silver price and the exchange rate from 1932 onwards led to an increase in negative balance of trade and an decrease in the remittance and other income of China. Therefore, China exported silver bullion abroad, financial institutions continued to invest in assets in order to balance the increasing local deposits. (3) The American Silver Purchase Act issued in June 1934 raised the international silver price rapidly. However, the exchange rate at Shanghai financial market lagged behind the silver price, because large amount of foreign exchange was bought for capital fight. The government taxation on silver stopped the legal export of silver, but made the market unstable. Alarmed by the drain of silver, financial institutions restricted credits. The asset market collapsed in turn, and the financial crisis deepened under the vicious cycle. The financial crisis in Shanghai had a political implication. Once the market oriented systems of currency supply and credit expansion collapsed, the government intervention was required. The Currency Reform declared in November 1935 contributed to the recovery from the depression from 1936. The relationships between the government and the market was altered under the new monetary and banking systems.