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Title: 渇水時貯水池操作における長期確率流量情報の利用性に関する一考察
Other Titles: Impact Analysis of Long-term Stochastic Inflow Prediction and Its Uncertainty on Reservoir Operation during Drought Situation
Authors: 野原, 大督  kyouindb  KAKEN_id
三木, 博子  KAKEN_name
堀, 智晴  KAKEN_name
Author's alias: NOHARA, Daisuke
MIKI, Hiroko
HORI, Tomoharu
Keywords: 利用性分析
確率流入量予測
渇水時貯水池操作
不確実性指標
モンテカルロシミュレーション
impact analysis
stochastic inflow prediction
reservoir operation for drought management
uncertainty index
Monte Carlo simulation
Issue Date: Sep-2013
Publisher: 京都大学防災研究所
Journal title: 京都大学防災研究所年報. B = Disaster Prevention Research Institute Annuals. B
Volume: 56
Issue: B
Start page: 639
End page: 646
Abstract: Impacts of long-term stochastic inflow predictions (SIPs) and their uncertainties on reservoir operation for water supply under drought situations are analyzed and discussed in this study. Multiple sets of SIPs are pseudo-randomly generated with five-day resolution for three months arbitrarily changing the two kinds of prediction's uncertainty, namely reliability and discrimination, for a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the SIP. Monte Carlo simulations of long-term reservoir operation for water supply under drought situations are then conducted considering generated multiple SIPs with various uncertainties. Proposed analyzing method was applied to an assumed reservoir which data was derived from Sameura Reservoir in Japan, demonstrating expected impacts of SIPs and their uncertainties on the long-term reservoir operation, and giving a suggestion what type of uncertainty in SIP is more important in real-time reservoir operation for more effective drought management.
URL: http://www.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/nenpo/nenpo.html
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2433/181505
Appears in Collections:Vol.56 B

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