予測情報の不確実性を考慮した貯水池利水操作における確率流況予測情報の利用性分析手法の開発

Abstract

A method for impacts analysis of uncertainties of stochastic streamflow prediction on long-term reservoir operation for drought management is therefore investigated in order to analyze the kind of uncertainty that most affects improvements in the performance of reservoir operations. Monte Carlo simulations of reservoir operation for water supply are conducted, coupling with optimization process of reservoir operations by stochastic dynamic programming considering long-term stochastic streamflow predictions, which are artificially generated with arbitrary uncertainties controlled by changing uncertainty indices proposed in this study. A fundamental case study was conducted using a simplified reservoir basin of which data was derived from the Sameura Reservoir basin in Japan, demonstrating the implication of the effect of stochastic streamflow prediction and its uncertainty.