陸面過程による農業水使用量とアラル海の消長に関する応答分析

Abstract

As a result of huge-scale irrigation project in the Soviet age, serious water scarcity has occurred in the Aral Sea Basin. Sustainable irrigation project is required and it has to be based on scientific information about water resource and water demand. To clear them in the Aral Sea basin, water circulation model has been made. In this study, the model was assessed by statistical model and the Aral Sea area was analyzed under several scenarios about irrigation water usage. First of all, H08 precipitation data, which is used in the model, was assessed by NCDC rain gauged observation data and H08 data was cleared to be accurate. Also, water discharge was analyzed and compared with observed discharge. In the analyzed data, peak period of discharge was from April to May while that was from June to July in observed data. In the scenario analysis, the Aral Sea area was analyzed under each scenario. As the result, large impacts to water inflow into the Aral Sea were analyzed.