京都盆地水系における地下水環境への気候変動影響の定量的評価 --MRI-AGCM2.3sを用いた気候変動影響評価--

Abstract

In order to evaluate groundwater environment for appropriate and sustainable use, impact assessment should be carried out with considering global climate change in future by using groundwater flow and water quality model. In this study, generally used type of two dimensional saturated groundwater flow model and advection-dispersion equation for Total Nitrogen (T-N) are used. Precipitation data is supplied from GCM calculation results (MRI-AGCM3.2s), where single mesh can almost cover study area because spatial resolution of this data is 20km. In order to obtain probabilistic estimation from simulation results calculated by a lot of precipitation information, rainfall data surrounding meshes of target area are applied. A risk of groundwater drawdown and water quality deterioration is evaluated with time and space domain by using multiple calculation results. These results are analyzed by using of probabilistic distribution function (PDF).