南海トラフ巨大地震モデルと地震科学の限界

Abstract

The provisional damage estimates based on the gigantic earthquake model along the Nankai trough shook the society. As a member of the Committee for this model, I am afraid that we should have examined the scientific validity of the model through serious discussion of the community of the earthquake science. We must recognize the limit inherent in the nature of earthquake and finite resources for observation. Peer review of earthquake hazard estimates by the community may be the way to recover reliability of earthquake science and ultimately contribute to disaster reduction.