輸入自由化後の中国大豆需給変化とその将来の見通し -大豆関連政策の問題点と今後の改善方向-

Abstract

Since 1996, China's soybean import has significantly increased. In this paper, we first present the background and economic mechanism for the substantial increase of soybean import; and then discuss future Chinese soybean import trends, as well as government policy on soybean's production in the country. The findings of our research are as follows: (1). Since 1996, the consumption of edible oil and animal products, such as pork, chicken, eggs, fish, and dairy products has sharply increased. Prompted by the rapid increase in consumption of these Western-style foods, the demand for oil crushing, as well as the total demand of soybeans has also significantly increased. However, with the Chinese per capita consumptions of edible oil and animal products getting closer to that of the Japanese, and the income elasticity for Western-style foods largely declining, the demand for soybean is likely to decelerate considerably in the near future. (2). However, soybean production became sluggish after 1996, and has been decreasing progressively in recent years. The sluggish and the significant decrease in soybean production are mainly due to its low profitability, which is the result of low price and slow improvement in yields, when compared with other competing crops. (3). If the economic growth continues in China, the price competitiveness of soybean, as well as rape seeds will continue to decline in the future. If left alone, further production decline is inevitable. To avoid this situation, the Chinese government should first shift the pivot foot from promoting high oil soybean production to encouraging no GM, traditional high protein soybean production; secondly revise the current temporary stockpiling purchase scheme, and introduce a fixed payment program for these crops.