カンボジアにおける稲作の国際競争力と米輸出拡大の可能性

Abstract

The Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC) has been implementing strategies to develop its rice sector as one of the main export industries. However, there is some skepticism regarding its success because the rice sector faces stiff price competition in the international market. The objectives of this paper are twofold. First, it measures the domestic resource cost (DRC) of rice from the production cost data of Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (CSES) 2010 and examines Cambodia's global competitiveness in the rice sector and the possibility of export expansion, taking account of its currency overvaluation. Second, it evaluates the effects of some policies for promotion of the rice sector using the calculated DRC measures. We find that 1. Cambodian rice lacks global competitiveness under the current nominal exchange rate; 2. however, it can become globally competitive if the distortion caused by trade deficit and inflation can be reduced; 3. the wet-season rice grown mainly in the plain areas of the Mekong River basin and northwest areas of Tonlesap has lower global competitiveness; 4. if the international price of rice declines by 20%, the wet-season rice will lose global competitiveness; and 5. if the RGC's rice sector development policies, such as increasing yields, reducing informal fees, and improving rice quality, become effective, then Cambodian rice will continue to maintain its global competitiveness under the real equilibrium exchange rate.