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j.trb.2014.06.012.pdf | 507.2 kB | Adobe PDF | 見る/開く |
タイトル: | A competing Markov model for cracking prediction on civil structures |
著者: | Kobayashi, K. Kaito, K. Lethanh, N. |
著者名の別形: | 小林, 潔司 |
キーワード: | Bayesian estimation Markov Chain Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling Markov chain model Infrastructure management Pavement cracking processes |
発行日: | Oct-2014 |
出版者: | Elsevier B.V. |
誌名: | Transportation Research Part B: Methodological |
巻: | 68 |
開始ページ: | 345 |
終了ページ: | 362 |
抄録: | Cracks on the surface of civil structures (e.g. pavement sections, concrete structures) progress in several formations and under different deterioration mechanisms. In monitoring practice, it is often that cracking type with its worst damage level is selected as a representative condition state, while other cracking types and their damage levels are neglected in records, remaining as hidden information. Therefore, the practice in monitoring has a potential to conceal with a bias selection process, which possibly result in not optimal intervention strategies. In overcoming these problems, our paper presents a non-homogeneous Markov hazard model, with competing hazard rates. Cracking condition states are classified in three types (longitudinal crack, horizontal crack, and alligator crack), with three respective damage levels. The dynamic selection of cracking condition states are undergone a competing process of cracking types and damage levels. We apply a numerical solution using Bayesian estimation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to solve the problem of high-order integration of complete likelihood function. An empirical study on a data-set of Japanese pavement system is presented to demonstrate the applicability and contribution of the model. |
著作権等: | © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. この論文は出版社版でありません。引用の際には出版社版をご確認ご利用ください。 This is not the published version. Please cite only the published version. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2433/191023 |
DOI(出版社版): | 10.1016/j.trb.2014.06.012 |
出現コレクション: | 学術雑誌掲載論文 |
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