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Title: 木材価格に関する研究 : 景気動向指数による分析
Other Titles: The Relationship between the Lumber Price Movement and the Diffusion Index
Authors: 松下, 幸司  kyouindb  KAKEN_id
Author's alias: Matsushita, Koji
Issue Date: 13-Dec-1989
Publisher: 京都大学農学部附属演習林
Volume: 61
Start page: 180
End page: 195
Abstract: 木材価格の変動は基本的には景気変動と密接な関係をもって動いてきた。石油危機の発生, 動相場制への移行等の経済全体の変化のなかでも基本的なパターンは変わっていない。こうした価格変動と景気変動の対応関係は米国においても同様である。両国とも, 景気の先行指数と価格の対前年同月比の間に, その転換点がだいたい一致する傾向を認めることが出来る。我が国の木材価格の動きを説明する指標としては, 従来は景気動向指数 (DI) の累積先行指数が有効であった。しかし, 1980年代に入りその有効性が減少し現在では景気総合指数 (CI) の対前年同月比のほうが有効である。我が国が今後, 木材価格動向指数を作成する場合, 考慮すべき課題は, 変化の大きさを表現するCI的な手法を採用すること, サーベイ・データを活用すること, 海外指標を取り入れた国際指標化の視点をもつことの3点である。
This paper is an analysis on the relationship between the lumber price and the business cycle. The main data used in this paper are Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Diffusion Index (DI). The results are summarized as follows : (1) In Japan, from the Mid-1950's to present, the peaks and the troughs of the yearly changes of the lumber price (WPI estimated by the Bank of Japan) are almost the same time as Reference Date (the peaks and the troughs of the business cycles determined by Economic Planning Agency). (2) In U.S.A., from 1980 to present, almost the same relationship is seen between the fluctuations of the lumber price (WPI estimated by U.S.Dept. of Labor) and the Reference Date determined by National Bureau of Economic Research. (3) In Japan, cumulative Diffusion Index (Leading Index) was usefull indicator to forecast the lumber price movement. But, after 1980's the effectiveness of forecast was decrease. For present, the yearly changes of Composite Index (CI) is the better indicator. (4) When we are going to edit something new index on the lumber price, we have to pay attention to the following 3 points : the use of CI method, the joint use of survey data, and the viewpoint of the international index.
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