陸面過程モデルによるカスピ海流域における水収支の再現

Abstract

Drastic fluctuation of the Caspian Sea was reported in 20th century, and serious flood and ecological damage were induced. Therefore, the reason of its fluctuation has been studied, but still unclear. The main purpose of this study is to explain the reason of fluctuation. Therefore, first of all, historical water balance was reproduced from 1960 to 2000 by physical water circulation model. And secondly, four hypotheses were discussed, which are climate change, saving water demand, developing dam to cut discharge to Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay and sea temperature rise. As a result, few fluctuations were reproduced by the model. Since global dataset was used for meteorological data, local measured data is required to review. As for artificial water use, impacts were small, however, since irrigation efficiency was reported to be improved, this can be a part of the reason as well as developing dam in KBG. Sea surface temperature was measured by AVHRR satellite data, and it slightly increased.