気候変動を考慮した日本の水力発電ポテンシャル評価

Abstract

In the big trend of shifting energy sources from nuclear and thermal power to renewable energy, hydropower generation has collected significant attention in Japan. In this research, focusing on 91 dams all over the Japan, it is shown how much potential it additionally generates only by changing maximum discharge Qmax, which is the setting of water volume used for power generation, of existing powered dams in Japan and how it changes by the effect of climate change. This study showed all the dams have potential to develop, and about 7% of increase is expected in total only by the simple operation change. It is, however, estimated that the generation will decrease by 11% in total in future by the effect of climate change. This situation can be improved by utilizing future potential of hydropower, and the results shows that the decrease ratio goes up till －6% in total, though it still remains negative. Whereas the generation of Hokkaido drastically increase about 20% in the future.