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タイトル: | AGCMアンサンブルを用いた梅雨期集中豪雨の大気場特性の出現頻度に関する将来変化 |
その他のタイトル: | Future Change in Appearance Frequency of Atmospheric Characteristics Causing Localized Heavy Rainfall during Baiu Season Using AGCM Ensembles |
著者: | 中北, 英一 草野, 晴香 峠, 嘉哉 KIM, Sunmin |
著者名の別形: | NAKAKITA, Eiichi KUSANO, Haruka TOUGE, Yoshiya KIM, Sunmin |
キーワード: | 気候変動 大気場 自己組織化マップ Climate Change Atmospheric Characteristics Self-Organizing Map |
発行日: | Jun-2016 |
出版者: | 京都大学防災研究所 |
誌名: | 京都大学防災研究所年報. B |
巻: | 59 |
号: | B |
開始ページ: | 230 |
終了ページ: | 248 |
抄録: | This study investigated future changes of a certain atmospheric characteristic, which can cause localized heavy rainfall events during Baiu season along the Japan islands. In this study, we have utilized Self-organizing map (SOM) to classify atmospheric conditions automatically and to distinguish the specific condition objectively. We have analyzed frequency of the specific atmospheric condition under the future climate as well as the present climate, and evaluated the statistical significance of frequency changes under the future climate based on ensemble experiments output with 60km resolution GCM(MRI-AGCM3.2H). By counting the number of times for the specific atmospheric condition, it is able to estimate possible changes of localized heavy rainfall pattern in the future. Our approach shows one of example that even small scale of localized heavy rainfall can be captured by considering characterized atmospheric conditions in large scale. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2433/217295 |
関連リンク: | http://www.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/nenpo/nenpo.html |
出現コレクション: | Vol.59 B |
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