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dc.contributor.author | Mukougawa, Hitoshi | en |
dc.contributor.author | Noguchi, Shunsuke | en |
dc.contributor.author | Kuroda, Yuhji | en |
dc.contributor.author | Mizuta, Ryo | en |
dc.contributor.author | Kodera, Kunihiko | en |
dc.contributor.alternative | 向川, 均 | ja |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-02-27T07:49:16Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2018-02-27T07:49:16Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2017-11 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 0022-4928 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2433/229437 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The predictability of a downward-propagating event of stratospheric planetary waves observed in early March 2007 is examined by conducting ensemble forecasts using an AGCM. It is determined that the predictable period of this event is about 7 days. Regression analysis using all members of an ensemble forecast also reveals that the downward propagation is significantly related to an amplifying quasi-stationary planetary-scale anomaly with barotropic structure in polar regions of the upper stratosphere. Moreover, the anomaly is 90° out of phase with the ensemble-mean field. Hence, the upper-stratospheric anomaly determines the subsequent vertical-propagating direction of incoming planetary waves from the troposphere by changing their vertical phase tilt, which depends on its polarity. Furthermore, the regressed anomaly is found to have similar horizontal structure to the pattern of greatest spread among members of the predicted upper-stratospheric height field, and the spread growth rate reaches a maximum prior to the occurrence of the downward propagation. Hence, the authors propose a working hypothesis that the regressed anomaly emerges as a result of the barotropic instability inherent to the upper-stratospheric circulation. In fact, the stability analysis for basic states constituting the ensemble-mean forecasted upper-stratospheric streamfunction field using a nondivergent barotropic vorticity equation on a sphere supports this hypothesis. Thus, the barotropic instability inherent to the distorted polar vortex in the upper stratosphere forced by incoming planetary waves from the troposphere determines whether the planetary waves are eventually absorbed or emitted downward in the stratosphere. | en |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
dc.language.iso | eng | - |
dc.publisher | American Meteorological Society | en |
dc.rights | © 2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses). | en |
dc.rights | The full-text file will be made open to the public on 14 December 2017 in accordance with publisher's 'Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving'. | en |
dc.subject | Stratospheric circulation | en |
dc.subject | Forecasting | en |
dc.title | Dynamics and Predictability of Downward-Propagating Stratospheric Planetary Waves Observed in March 2007 | en |
dc.type | journal article | - |
dc.type.niitype | Journal Article | - |
dc.identifier.jtitle | Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences | en |
dc.identifier.volume | 74 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 11 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | 3533 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | 3550 | - |
dc.relation.doi | 10.1175/JAS-D-16-0330.1 | - |
dc.textversion | publisher | - |
dc.address | Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University | en |
dc.address | Meteorological Research Institute | en |
dc.address | Meteorological Research Institute | en |
dc.address | Meteorological Research Institute | en |
dc.address | Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University | en |
dcterms.accessRights | open access | - |
出現コレクション: | 学術雑誌掲載論文等 |
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