北緯25度以北での台風発生について

Abstract

Usually, Typhoons formed over the tropical western north Pacific (WNP) or the South China Sea (SCS), but some typhoons formed north of Tropics (e.g., north of 23.4°N). To mitigate impact of typhoons formed north of the tropics on the Japanese Islands, accurate typhoon genesis forecast for such storms should be helpful because shorter lead time before it influences Japan is expected for such storms than those formed in the tropics. Here we examined (1) monthly frequency of typhoon genesis, (2) relationship between the western north Pacific monsoon index (WNPMI) and storm formation, (3) relationship between phases of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO), and (4) characteristics of environmental parameters at the formation time. We found that typhoons formation in the north of 25°N occurred in July–November and the most frequent month is August. In August, 52% of formation in the north of 25°N occurred when WNPMI is abnormally small. Typhoon formation frequency in August in the north of 25°N is smaller for phase 6–7 and larger for phase 8 than that of whole the WNP or the SCS. Appearance frequency of relative vorticity at 850 hPa and the sea surface temperature for typhoons formed in the north of 25°N is different from those of whole the WNP and the SCS.