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Title: 模擬作成されたアンサンブル流入量予測情報の再現性 --ダム洪水操作計画への適用に向けて--
Other Titles: Comparison of Generated Ensemble Inflow Prediction with Operational Prediction -Towards Application to Flood Control Operation of Reservoirs-
Authors: 野原, 大督  kyouindb  KAKEN_id
齋藤, 宏樹  KAKEN_name
HAPSARI, Ratih Indri
Author's alias: NOHARA, Daisuke
SAITO, Hiroki
HAPSARI, Ratih Indri
Keywords: アンサンブル予測
ensemble prediction
simulated generation
error characteristics
reservoir operation for flood management
Issue Date: Sep-2018
Publisher: 京都大学防災研究所
Journal title: 京都大学防災研究所年報. B = Disaster Prevention Research Institute Annuals. B
Volume: 61
Issue: B
Start page: 696
End page: 701
Abstract: Characteristics of ensemble inflow predictions synthetically generated using error characteristics of the operational hydrological prediction is analyzed to investigate the way to effectively use the simulated generation method of hydrological predictions. As a result of the analysis, it was shown that the conventional generation method assuming stationary error parameters did not well simulate operational ensemble inflow prediction. It was also shown that the modified generation method assuming non-stationary error parameters could reproduce operational ensemble prediction. It is therefore considered to be important to include a model of non-stationary error parameter in the generation model for more realistic generation of ensemble inflow predictions.
Appears in Collections:Vol.61 B

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