模擬作成されたアンサンブル流入量予測情報の再現性 --ダム洪水操作計画への適用に向けて--

Abstract

Characteristics of ensemble inflow predictions synthetically generated using error characteristics of the operational hydrological prediction is analyzed to investigate the way to effectively use the simulated generation method of hydrological predictions. As a result of the analysis, it was shown that the conventional generation method assuming stationary error parameters did not well simulate operational ensemble inflow prediction. It was also shown that the modified generation method assuming non-stationary error parameters could reproduce operational ensemble prediction. It is therefore considered to be important to include a model of non-stationary error parameter in the generation model for more realistic generation of ensemble inflow predictions.