Dynamical downscaling of Typhoon Lionrock (2016) for assessing the resulting hazards under global warming

Abstract

Typhoons are considered as one of the most powerful disaster-spawning weather phenomena. Recent studies have revealed that typhoons will be stronger and more powerful in a future warmer climate and be a threat to lives and properties. In this study, we conduct downscaling experiments of an extreme rain-producing typhoon, Typhoon Lionrock (2016) in order to assess the impacts of climate change on resulting hazards by assuming pseudo global warming (PGW) conditions. The downscaled precipitations over the landfall region in the present climate condition agree well with the Radar- Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (Radar-AMeDAS) observations. A typhoon track in the future climate similar to that in the present climate is successfully reproduced, with a stronger wind speed (by ~20 knots) and lower central pressure (by ~20 hPa) under the PGW condition. The changes in precipitation amounts associated with the typhoon under PGW condition are analyzed over 7 individual prefectures in the northern part of Japan. The typhoon in the warming climate produces more precipitation over all prefectures. Iwate, Aomori, Akita, Miyagi and Hokkaido are projected to have relatively more precipitation associated with the typhoon in the warming climate. The overall analysis suggests that Typhoon Lionrock under PGW may increase the risk of flooding, damages to infrastructures, and lives staying along the typhoon track.