<論説>フランス第二共和政・制憲議会議員の投票行動分析

Abstract

一九六〇年代のフランス史学界では、数量的把握の方法、すなわちコンピューターを用いたデータの大量処理の必要性が十分認識されていた。しかし、政治史の分野では特に選挙・投票分析において有効と思われるこの新しい方法が、フランス近代史研究に適用された例は乏しい。小論はSPSS(社会科学のための統計パッケージ) に含まれる数量化理論Ⅲ類の方法を用いて、一八四八年五月より一年余りにわたって存続した制憲議会(憲法制定国民議会) の議員の政治的選択のあり方の類別を明らかにする。依拠した史料は官報モニトゥール紙に掲載された議案ごとの投票リストである。当該期間において議席を保った八四九名の議員の投票行動が、数量化Ⅲ類の特性に応じて導き出される議員、および議案の類似性のパターンから裏付けられる。研究の第一の目的は議員の党派的分類であるが、党派的対立とは異なる要因も考慮される。

The purpose of this essay is to testify the voting behavior of the people's representatives in 1848--1849. The short-lived assembly, which was called l'assemblée nationale constituante, did exist no more than thirteen months (from May 5, 1848 to May 26, 1849), though the problems of great urgency came up for discussion successively at the assembly hall and the committee rooms. Le Moniteur universel, official chronicle, give us a full detail of the pros and cons of 244 decisions. Among them, the writer selects 19 voting lists. The voting patterns of almost 850 representatives converged into four pre-party assemblages: determinant right wing, two republican fractions, and non-determinant passive republicans. The land-slide victory of the moderate republican group is only a cursory reading. The middle-of-the-way politics of moderates' was not self-sustaining and the final show-down between royalists and radicals was easily predicated. The ideological cleavage crisscrossed the nation who, for the first time, was introduced to the political life by the universal suffrage. Any political whips but Louis-Napoléon were not satisfactory to the electorate mass, and every heated debatings aroused people's instinct. Newspapers and pamphlets (three of these are analyzed here on motives and headings) reported the sessions everyday. A serious talk about such critical issues as droit au travail, cautionnement, every article of constitutional law, abolition of clubs, and foreign policy show us a tense atmosphere. The cross vote at this assembly reflects the changing pattern of French political life, not along the party affiliation at that time.