<論説>銀と石油 : 善隣外交とメキシコのカルデナス改革の後退、一九三八－四〇年

Abstract

一九三八年三月、メキシコのカルデナス政権は外国石油資本を接収した。本稿はこの問題に対する米国の政策について次の四点を明らかにした。まず、通貨危機をはじめとする困難に直面していた改革期のカルデナス政権に、ローズヴェルト政権は大規模な財政援助を行なう用意があった。第二に石油国有化は援助の可能性を絶ち、メキシコの経済・政治情勢をさらに悪化させ改革を後退させた。第三に財務省と大統領が中心となって米国は銀国際価格を高い水準に設定してメキシコ銀の購入を続けた。これはメキシコ国内情勢の悪化とスペイン内戦や世界大戦勃発のような国際情勢悪化の醸成する危機感によって、カルデナス政権の崩壊にともなう混乱を防止する予防政策となった。第四に、石油紛争をめぐって悪化しつつあった両国関係も、ナチス・ドイツのフランスへの侵攻にともなう米国側の危機感の深まりとメキシコ側の軍事協力の申し出とで改善へと進んだ。この過程で、メキシコは米国への従属を深めた。

Mexican President Lazaro Cardenas expropriated the foreign oil industries on 18 March 1938. This paper examines the Franklin D. Roosevelt administration's policy toward Mexico after the oil expropriation. Specifically, it looks at four factors: a financial crisis of the Cardenas government; oil nationalization; foreign silver purchases; and the international context. Several themes emerge. First, New Dealers, such as Roosevelt, Ambassador Josephus Daniels, and Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau, Jr., had strong sympathy for Cardenas's land reform. Their national security concern also played an important role; they wanted to avoid a pitched battle between capital and labor on the model of the Spanish Civil War in Mexico. They were ready to provide substantial financial aid for the Cardenas government in December 1937. Second, the oil nationalization was a political decision resulted from the intransigence of the foreign oil industries. However, economic and political costs of the oil nationalization exceeded Mexico's revenues created by U. S. silver purchases, which furnished Mexico with an assured market for its most important export commodity. Thus, the oil nationalization jeopardized a large loan program the Roosevelt administration contemplated then, increased Mexico's economic and political constraints resulting from rapid social reforms, and led Cardenas to compromise with conservative forces in Mexico. Third, U. S. sympathy and silver purchases were not sufficient to ameliorate Mexico's economic crisis, and consequent political crisis. The U. S. policy toward Mexico became to act as a preventive policy of collapse of the Cardenas government. Lastly, by April 1940 U. S. and Mexican policymakers faced a critical conjuncture resulting from the near collapse of Mexican monetary system, the presidential elections in Mexico, and the impasse of the oil dispute. The German invasion of the Low Countries and the subsequent fall of France made the policymakers of the two nations cooperate.