<研究創案ノート>現代シリアの権威主義体制の変容とその限界 --なにがシリア難民問題をもたらしたのか--

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the root causes of the Syrian refugee problem from the perspective of Middle East area studies. This paper examines the transformation and limitations of the modern Syrian governing system, which eventually produced an ultimately authoritarian regime, as indirect, but fundamental, causes of the Syrian refugee problem. The Syrian Arab Republic is located in one of the most historical places in the Middle East, and had a long record of Islamic governance in one form or another in the pre-modern period. In the modern era, a modern nation-state was created, and an authoritarian system was installed in 1970. After a substantial period of undemocratic rule, in March 2011, as part of the "Arab Spring, " or the waves of popular demands for democratization in Arab countries, a Syria demonstration occurred for the democratization of the Syrian government under the Ba'th party. It became a trigger that gave rise to popular dissatisfaction with the regime, and demonstrations spread to other cities in Syria. However, the peaceful demonstrations, facing brutal suppressions, turned into an armed struggle, and developed into a serious armed conflict between the regime lead by Bashar Asad and the various dissident groups. It became increasingly intensified, and escalated to what is called the "Syrian Civil War". This paper traces back to the history of nation-state building in Syria, the creation and development of an authoritarian regime under Hafiz Asad in the latter half of the 20th century. It will argue that there were two fundamental limitations of the governing system in Syria from the very beginning since its independence, and that these limitations led to the inevitable clash between the regime which Bashar Asad inherited from his father on the one hand and the dissident groups on the other.