恒星観測のトレミー疑惑と春海疑惑 : 古星図・星表成立年の統計推定法の応用 (The study of the history of mathematics 2016)

Abstract

In our statistical estimation attempt of observation dates for the star map depicted inside the Kitora tumulus located at Nara, Japan, we developed a special technique to make full use of all the measured positions of the 28 xiu constellations. It was estimated, at the 90% confidence level, that these 28 xiu stars were observed in [123BC, 39BC] (or approximately 80BC±40). Our same technique applied to the Shi-shi's Star Catalog, the oldest star catalog of China, showed that the observation epoch of this catalog was in good agreement with the one for the Kitora star map, strongly suggesting that the data of the latter were based on the Shi-shi's Star Catalog. Using the same method, we also made dating analyses of the star catalog in the Almagest by Ptolemy and stellar observations conducted by Harumi Shibukawa. Our estimated results obviously disagreed with the observation times mentioned in their books, therefore making us cast doubt on the authenticity of the alleged observations by the two astronomers.