ダウンロード数: 299
このアイテムのファイル:
ファイル | 記述 | サイズ | フォーマット | |
---|---|---|---|---|
jdr.2019.p0786.pdf | 3.45 MB | Adobe PDF | 見る/開く |
タイトル: | Experimental high resolution forecasting of volcanic ash hazard at Sakurajima, Japan |
著者: | Poulidis, Alexandros Panagiotis Takemi, Tetsuya https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7596-2373 (unconfirmed) Iguchi, Masato https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4322-5854 (unconfirmed) |
著者名の別形: | 竹見, 哲也 井口, 正人 |
キーワード: | volcanic ash tephra dispersal modeling ash hazard forecast FALL3D |
発行日: | 1-Aug-2019 |
出版者: | Fuji Technology Press Ltd. |
誌名: | Journal of Disaster Research |
巻: | 14 |
号: | 5 |
開始ページ: | 786 |
終了ページ: | 797 |
抄録: | A high-resolution forecast methodology for the ash hazard at Sakurajima volcano, Japan, is presented. The methodology employs a combined modeling approach and utilizes eruption source parameters estimated by geophysical observations from Sakurajima, allowing for a proactive approach in forecasting. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to downscale Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast data over the area of interest. The high-resolution meteorological data are then used in FALL3D model to provide a forecast for the ash dispersal and deposition. The methodology is applied for an eruption that occurred on June 16, 2018. Disdrometer observations of ashfall are used along with ash dispersal modeling to inform the choice of the total grain size distribution (TGSD). A series of pseudo-forecast ash dispersal simulations are then carried out using the proposed methodology and estimated TGSD, initialized with meteorological forecast data released up to ∼13 hours before the eruption, with results showing surprising consistency up to ∼10 hours before the eruption. Using forecast data up to 4 hours before the eruption was seen to constrain observation to model ratios within a factor of 2–4 depending on the timing of simulation and location. A number of key future improvements for the methodology are also highlighted. |
著作権等: | Publisher permitted to deposit the accepted manuscript on this repository. 発行元の許可を得て登録しています. This is not the published version. Please cite only the published version. この論文は出版社版でありません。引用の際には出版社版をご確認ご利用ください。 |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2433/244114 |
DOI(出版社版): | 10.20965/jdr.2019.p0786 |
出現コレクション: | 学術雑誌掲載論文等 |
このリポジトリに保管されているアイテムはすべて著作権により保護されています。